Diablo TT

By the numbers… Analyzing the Diablo Time Trial
Rider: ck

Anyone who spends half as much time as I do reviewing and analyzing performance numbers will appreciate this blog entry. Let me start by saying that I think this is the best threshold performance event in the bay area. The distance and slope are perfect for 30 minutes of pure pain and suffering. At the end of the ride, you get benchmark data to gauge your fitness and mental sanity level. I’m not saying this event is fun… it’s not, but that shouldn’t stop you from coming out. Knowing your body, and the event day conditions to put out your absolute best time is a tall order to fill. I’ve never pushed and maintained such a sustained level of discomfort as I do in this event. For better or worse, it a nice snapshot in time... let's take a look -

First let's look at the weather, it’s important!
2007 – Winds calm, partly cloudy, temps in the low 70’s, air clear
2008 – Winds 3-8 mph, sunny, temps in the low 80’s, air poor

Last year we totally lucked out with the weather. Other than “ideal” temps, the race day was almost perfect. This year a light headwind, high temps and really poor air quality all worked against us. As a general rule of thumb, every 10 degrees temperature difference will vary your heart rate 5 beats per minute (+10 degrees = +5 beats/min). Depending on your max hr, you might be looking at a 3-5% increase in hr, which surely has an affect on your performance.

Observations: This year I have to say the burn in my lungs after the race was painful. Given the fact that my "vital" stats where all down from last year, I have to think that the air quality played a large part in this. I will say that driving over the Bay Bridge today, the East Bay was almost obscured by a blanket of dark brown smog. Local fires also added to the air quality problems. The valley floor from up on Diablo was obscured by the smog/smoke as well. I think the record heat of the previous two days and a lack of fog and wind brought us right up there with LA air quality...

Ok, let’s look at the raw data…

Average Speed: 2007 - 12.97 2008 - 13.10
Max Speed: 2007 - 30.23 2008 - 27.47
Average Cad: 2007 - 88 2008 - 86
% Of Time in Zone 4: 2007 - 8% 2008 - 23%
% Of Time in Zone 5: 2007 - 92% 2008 - 77%
Average HR: 2007 - 183 2008 - 181
Average Watts: 2007 - 303 2008 - 325

My stats (for reference only): HR Info (I use 92-100% for Zone 5 simply because I consider anything in Zone 5 to be unsustainable for any reasonable length of time… ie, my cracking point. 92-93% is where it's at for me) Max HR 196 Zone 4 166-180 (85-91%) Zone 5 181-196 (92-100%)

Observations: I clearly danced the line here between Zone 4 and Zone 5. Rule of thumb, your Max HR drops 1 beat/min per year, so these stats seem about right to me. I'm also certain my fitness level this year is better than last, so it's no surprise my HR was down slightly.

Splits (click them):
Observations: For the first 4.5 miles of the race I consistently lost time against my effort from last year (13 seconds). In the last 1.75 miles, I took off 34 seconds beating my time from last year by 21 seconds. Again, I think the wind and air quality had a lot to do with this with the beginning portion of the ride. In the first mile, which tends flat, I lost 6 seconds from 2007. My max speed for this section shows why, the difference between years was 2.76 mph slower this year. I think the headwind was the main factor, but air quality and heat continued to play a role as I made my way up the mountain. As my speeds slowed when I started to climb, the wind became less of a factor. In fact, the higher I got today, the calmer the winds got.

The last mile this year is where I really felt a difference. The splits show this is where I had started to fall apart the year before, while this year I maintained a consistent pace.

2007 (click graph to enlarge)

Note my HR disappear in to the red around mile 0.5... Green line is average speed -

2008 (click graph to enlarge)

















This year I had set the goal for myself at 27:45. Given last years conditions, I estimated my power output would have had to be around 317 watts, a little less than a 5% increase. Even though my time was significantly slower than my goal, the actual effort was about 7% more. So for kicks, 325 watts with 2007 conditions would be a +/- 27:15 time... ok, maybe next year! Regardless, I think this exercise shows the usefulness of looking at all forms of data, because HR alone doesn't necessarily show actual effort.

Pescadero Road Race - June 14, 2008

Category: Elite 5
2 laps ~47 miles
Teammates: Chirs Kurrle

This race is called the "Pescadero Coastal Classic" and I'd say it lived up to its "classic" status with a beautiful course, excellent roads, and challenging terrain. Apparently plenty of others agree, because I can't remember being at another race that was so well-attended. Plus its less than an hour drive from home, which made it all the better!

Chris I and left San Francisco at 7am and drove most of the way to the race buried under a thick layer of fog. I was thinking back to the last time I had ridden some of the roads around Pescadero when they were wet, and started thinking that doing so with a pack of 50 Cat 5 racers was not going to be much fun. Fortunately the roads were dry, and the sun even broke through as our race got underway at 9.

The first lap pace was very manageable. We hit the Stage Road climbs reasonably hard, but nobody was interested in trying to take off on the first lap. I tried to move toward the front coming over the top of the two Stage Road climbs to be in a safe position of the twisty downhills. The field strung out on Hwy. 84, and lots of surging was happening, but again, no breaks forming. As we approached Pescadero Road, I jumped on the wheel of a rider from CS racing who was surging toward the front. It may be have been a waste of energy, but I wanted to be close to the front on the main climb to give myself a chance to go with any lead group that might form. The field started to break up quickly on Haskin's Hill - Chris came by me riding strong with a few others... I felt good, but not great. I couldn't maintain contact with the 7 or so riders who were setting the pace halfway up the hill, but I was content to be sitting in about 10th place and maintaining position.

I was pretty cooked coming over the top of Haskin's Hill, but the lead group (that included Chris) wasn't that far ahead, and so when the guys I was with shouted to try to close down the gap on the descent, I jumped on a wheel. I wasn't too interested in helping bridge up to Chirs' group, but I didn't want to let these guys do so without me either! I later learned from Chris that the group he was with up front wasn't too cooperative and basically sat up on the flat portion of Pescadero Road, so I suppose we would have regrouped anyway...

A good-sized field was back together heading back into the town of Pescadero. I felt pretty sluggish as we turned onto Stage Road and headed for our second trip over the two Stage Road climbs. I figured the race would really get going on those climbs, and I was right. Unfortunately, this knowledge wasn't enough to keep me in contact with the leaders. I struggled a little bit, and focused on getting over as fast as I could without blowing up. This time, the descents were a bit sketchy, as riders were tired and desperate to stay in the race - one guy passed me going into a turn and then hit the brakes so hard he nearly locked up his rear wheel...not fun.


Hwy. 84 to Pescadero Road on the second lap was fun. I wan't sure how many guys were out front after the Stage Road climbs, but I guessed it was about 8, so I knew I still had a good shot at a top ten finish if I could stay with the second group of 10 or 12. Several guys tried to attack, but nothing was sticking. We probably could have made some headway on the leaders if we were more organized, but our paceline was a mess, with some people refusing to pull and others pulling way to hard (including me one time). On one of the Hwy. 84 rollers about 2 miles from the turn onto Pescadero Road, I tried an attack because it looked like people were hurting a bit. Two guys came with me, and for a minute it looked like we might stay away from the others. A rider from BikeNut worked well with me, but the 3rd guy wasn't too helpful, and after about 2 minutes we were regrouped. Oh well - looks like it will come down to every man for himself on the final climb I thought to myself.


We turned onto Pescadero Road - there are really two climbs here - one easyish climb through the feed zone, then down to the intersection with Alpine, and then the final push up Haskin's Hill. Strangely, things slowed way down on the easy feed zone climb. I felt pretty good, grabbed some neutral water (thanks!), and decided to push the pace. It worked! One guy followed me, but the other 9 or so didn't. Adrenaline kicked in and I pedaled hard even on the downhill. I actually felt pretty good at the bottom of Haskin's, and just settled in and prayed my effort through the feed zone wouldn't catch up to me...

I ended up catching one guy on the climb, but I also got caught by someone who had followed my wheel closely with about 500m to go. Getting passed was a bummer, but I was happy to have held on to my overall position. Unfortunately, my estimate of the number of guys in front of me was off - I was hoping that I would be in the top 10, but ended up placing 13th.